The bustling, neon-lit streets of Osaka’s Namba and Dotonbori districts, famous for their vibrant food scene and iconic Glico Running Man sign, remain as crowded as ever. However, a closer look at the sea of faces reveals a significant demographic shift, a direct consequence of geopolitical crosscurrents impacting one of Japan’s top tourist destinations.
A Noticeable Absence and a New Mix of Visitors
Following a “don’t-go-to-Japan” travel advisory issued by the Chinese government in November, local businesses and observers are reporting a sharp decline in visitors from mainland China. For years, Chinese tour groups were the most dominant force in these areas, their presence easily identifiable by the large buses and shopping bags from luxury retailers.
Today, the atmosphere is different. While the energy of the districts is undiminished, the primary languages heard on the streets are more diverse. The majority of international visitors now appear to hail from Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines, alongside a strong contingent of travelers from Europe and North America. On-the-ground reports confirm that the once-ubiquitous large Chinese tour groups have been replaced by smaller groups and independent travelers from a wider array of nations.
Background: The Ripple Effect of Geopolitical Tensions
The Chinese government’s warning is widely seen as a response to ongoing political tensions, particularly following the release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This has had a tangible effect on tourism, a sector highly sensitive to diplomatic relations.
The economic significance of Chinese tourism to Japan cannot be overstated. According to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), in the pre-pandemic year of 2019, visitors from mainland China constituted the largest group of international tourists, numbering 9.59 million, which accounted for 30.1% of the total. More importantly, their spending reached an estimated 1.77 trillion yen, far surpassing any other nationality and fueling a retail boom often referred to as “bakugai,” or explosive shopping.
Economic Impact on Local Businesses
This sudden drop-off is hitting specific sectors hard. Local businesses that once catered heavily to the high-spending habits of Chinese tour groups are now feeling the pinch.
Retail and Services
Drugstores, which saw massive sales of cosmetics and health products, and luxury brand-name retailers are experiencing a slowdown. The current wave of tourists, while numerous, tends to have different spending patterns, often prioritizing experiences and food over high-value goods.
Tour Operators
The impact is not limited to retail. Canal boat tour operators in Dotonbori have also confirmed a significant decrease in bookings from Chinese tourists. These tours, a staple of the Osaka experience, are now navigating with a more international, but less concentrated, customer base.
Future Outlook: A Forced Diversification?
The immediate future for businesses in Namba and Dotonbori will likely involve a period of adaptation. The challenge lies in adjusting marketing strategies and service offerings to appeal to a more diverse, and potentially less monolithic, group of travelers.
This situation, while challenging, may also serve as a catalyst for a more resilient and sustainable tourism model for Osaka. Over-reliance on a single market has long been identified as a risk. The current shift forces the local tourism industry to diversify its appeal and strengthen its outreach to markets in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
In the long term, the return of Chinese tourists will depend heavily on the diplomatic climate between Japan and China. Until then, Osaka’s most famous neighborhoods will continue to evolve, reflecting a new, more globalized chapter in Japan’s post-pandemic tourism recovery. The Glico Running Man may be a constant, but the crowd cheering him on is, for now, compositionally changed.
